Fleet expectations of growth in electric van numbers are “almost flat”, according to Arval's 2026 Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer.
It shows that light commercial vehicle (LCV) operators forecast 16% of their fleets will be electric within three years – up just two percentage point on when the same question was asked last year and only a one percentage point increase on 2024.
John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “Fleet difficulties in moving away from traditional, internal combustion engined vans are underlined by the responses to this question.
“They show electrification of LCV operations remains a significant issue. The forecasted percentage penetration is almost flat over the last three years while the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate target for new electric vans sales is 58% in 2029.
“There is clearly a quite dramatic mismatch between government and fleet operator expectations.”
At the same time, the Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer indicates petrol and diesel vehicle numbers will continue to grow at 74% – an increase of 3%.
John said: “It is widely recognised that fleets face significant challenges when it comes to electric van adoption in areas including range, payload, and charging. These issues cause sometimes significant operational difficulties, so the doubts expressed by our respondents and preference for long-established fuels are understandable.
“These forecasts are probably overly pessimistic, though, in our view. The Arval consulting team works closely with many fleets on electrification and the potential for adoption is much higher than generally recognised across the sector, if not approaching ZEV Mandate levels. Many of the apparent problems can be solved with slight changes in approach while the significant advantages of electric vans are perhaps unappreciated. We are also seeing new models enter the market which present opportunities for operator fleets”
Interestingly, Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer shows international expectations for LCV electrification are even less optimistic than the UK – with the European average forecast at 14% electric and 74% diesel, and globally at 11% and 80% respectively.
