The government has launched a consultation on changes to the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, opening the conversation once again on how quickly manufacturers should be required to shift away from petrol and diesel – and what that means for fleets and the wider industry
Open until 23 October, the government consultation on proposed changes to the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate gives vehicle manufacturers, fleet operators and other industry stakeholders the opportunity to influence how the UK reaches its 2030 and 2035 targets for zero-emission cars and vans.
The government has stressed that the end goals themselves are not changing. The sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be ended from 2030, with cars (hybrid), and vans (petrol, diesel and hybrids) allowed to be sold until 2035. All new cars and vans are expected to be fully zero emission by 2035.
Instead, the review is focused on the route to those targets, with ministers arguing that the regulatory framework needs to remain practical and responsive to changing market conditions while supporting investment and the competitiveness of the UK automotive sector.
The consultation aims to understand whether the existing annual ZEV sales targets remain appropriate in what the government describes as a challenging global economic environment. Supply chain disruption, higher energy prices, international competition and uncertainty around tariffs and trade are among the factors being considered.
For fleet decision makers, the outcome could have significant implications for vehicle availability and model choice.
A market in transition
The review comes as EV sales continue to grow. Battery electric car registrations were up 44.5 per cent in July, according to SMMT figures. Manufacturers are also currently on track to meet their 2025 ZEV targets.
However, the government argues that the market in which the mandate was originally designed has changed significantly. In the foreword to the consultation, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander points to higher energy prices, increasing international competition and uncertainty over the treatment of UK-built vehicles in export markets.
“We are aware of wider challenges and uncertainty faced by the UK automotive sector,” she says, adding that government needs to support the industry’s transition while ensuring the UK remains an attractive place for manufacturers to operate and create green jobs.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, welcomed the review, saying the regulation had been developed under very different economic and market conditions, including cheaper energy, falling production costs and more optimistic expectations for global demand.
He argues that regulatory targets are now running ahead of consumer demand and that the review should deliver a commercially sustainable transition that supports investment, jobs, competitiveness and greater choice for motorists.
What alternatives are proposed?
Under the current ZEV Mandate trajectory, manufacturers are required to reach 80 per cent zero-emission car sales by 2030, with an indicative direction towards 100 per cent in 2035.
The consultation puts several alternatives on the table. The government is seeking views on whether the 2030 target should be reduced to 70, 60, 50 or 40 per cent.
Another option would retain the existing trajectory, reaching 80 per cent ZEV sales in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035, while extending key flexibilities available to manufacturers, including banking, borrowing and CO2 conversion, through to 2034.
The consultation gives specific attention to vans, where the transition to zero-emission vehicles has been slower.
The existing trajectory requires manufacturers to reach 70 per cent zero-emission van sales by 2030, rising towards 100 per cent in 2035.
Again, the government is considering alternative routes, including reducing the 2030 target to 60, 50 or 40 per cent, before reaching 100 per cent in 2035.
Alternatively, manufacturers could remain on the existing trajectory, while gaining extended flexibility through mechanisms such as banking, borrowing and CO2 conversion until 2034.
The different characteristics of the van market mean that the debate is particularly relevant to commercial vehicle operators.
Simon Staton from Venson Automotive Solutions, welcomes the specific focus on vans, but argues that changing the sales trajectory alone will not remove the barriers facing fleet electrification. Payload, range, vehicle suitability, charging availability and acquisition costs can all determine whether an electric van is capable of performing the required role.
Logistics UK has made a similar distinction between the car and commercial vehicle markets. Ben Fletcher, chief executive of the organisation, says van uptake continues to lag behind the trajectory, with practical barriers including grid connections, public charging suitable for larger vehicles and cost.
“Getting those enablers right matters as much as the targets themselves,” he says.
Industry reaction
Many in the industry see the consultation as a necessary measure to ensure the ZEV is working and to influence next steps.
The BVRLA has welcomed the opportunity to influence the next stage of the transition. Chief executive Toby Poston says its members have already invested more than £36 billion in 750,000 electric vehicles and that the organisation will use the consultation to identify where policy is working, where additional support is required and how the transition can continue with confidence.
Some in the charging industry, meanwhile, has warned against weakening the regulatory signal.
Delvin Lane, CEO of InstaVolt, argues that private investment in ultra-rapid charging depends on certainty over the direction of government policy. He said: “We’ve invested hundreds of millions of pounds into the UK’s charging network because government policy gave us a clear runway to plan against. Softening the mandate at this stage risks spooking exactly the private capital that’s been building the infrastructure this transition depends on.”
Octopus Electric Vehicles has similarly warned that weakening the mandate could undermine confidence at a point when EVs are becoming increasingly competitive.
Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, said: “The ZEV mandate is working – giving manufacturers confidence to invest and drivers confidence to switch. Weakening it now would send exactly the wrong signal, just as EVs are becoming some of the best-value cars on the road.”
The wider impact
The impact of changing the ZEV trajectory could extend well beyond vehicle manufacturers.
BEAMA, the trade association representing manufacturers and providers of electrical infrastructure technologies and systems, has modelled the potential impact of reducing the 2030 car target from 80 per cent to 50 per cent.
Its analysis suggests such a change could delay up to £1.56 billion in UK home charger sales and installations, with as many as 1.7 million fewer potential home charge point sales by 2034.
BEAMA also warns that manufacturers could revisit investment plans made on the basis of the existing targets. Some planned investments, it says, approach £100 million and could support jobs in local communities.
The organisation estimates that additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid vehicles resulting from a weaker target could generate 71 million tonnes of CO2e over their lifetimes – roughly equivalent to a year’s emissions from the UK’s entire transport sector.
It also estimates that the UK could have up to 12GW less potential flexible charging capacity, at a time when smart EV charging is expected to play an increasingly important role in balancing the electricity system.
What does it mean for fleets?
For fleet operators, the consultation raises questions that go beyond the headline percentage targets. A slower regulatory trajectory could potentially give businesses more time to transition vehicles that are difficult or expensive to electrify, particularly heavier vans and specialist commercial vehicles.
At the same time, changes to manufacturer targets could affect the speed at which new electric models reach the market and the investment decisions behind charging infrastructure and vehicle supply. A problem for those looking to electrify.
However, as the consultation does not propose abandoning the UK’s zero-emission ambitions, switching to a zero emission fleet should still remain firmly on the agenda.
