Jonathan Murray,  Managing Director of the Zemo Partnership, shares his thoughts on the ZEV Mandate consultation

Many of you will be aware that Norway has been the international ‘poster child’ for the electric revolution in road transport, so it was a surprise to learn that its near neighbour Denmark has joined the leaders’ party, with 97 per cent of all new cars sold in the country being fully electric (BEVs) in July this year.

Denmark may be the rising star, but EV sales are on the rise almost everywhere.

The SMMT reported that BEV registrations in the UK soared by 44.5 per cent year-on-year in July to take a 27.5 per cent share of the total new car market. This follows the historic milestone earlier this year when EV sales in the UK officially overtook petrol car sales over a rolling 12-month period for the first time.

The UK is in a different situation and a much larger car market than Denmark or Norway, of course, but it’s clear that we’re on a similar path.

Following encouraging UK EV sales figures in July – and coming so soon after the summer’s latest, alarming heatwave (providing further evidence, if any is needed, that climate change is happening) – the announcement that there will be an early review of the ZEV Mandate targets may have felt a bit dissonant.
However, it was not really unexpected; the review had been intimated by the outgoing Starmer administration following months of industry pressure and trade unions concerned about the jobs of their members employed in the auto sector.

The review includes a wide range of options that the Government may take: from leaving the trajectory largely unchanged but giving manufacturers more ‘flexibilities’ to a significant reduction in interim sales targets leading to the (reconfirmed) end-dates for new ICE sales of 2030 and 2035 (for cars and vans respectively).

While the end point remains clear, there’s an obvious tension between the transition of the auto sector and the investment needed in the charging infrastructure to support the EV market. And getting this trajectory right is critical to maintaining the progress in decarbonising the car and van fleets in the UK.

But it’s also not just new vehicle registrations that need to be considered in developing a properly functioning EV market. There also needs to be consideration of more coordinated support for the used EV market as part of a package of measures to increase EV adoption. Fleet operators will be amongst the first to point out that we need a coherent, fully functioning used EV sector for the whole market to thrive – and to drive the demand for new models that the manufacturers need to see.

However, we must not forget that the UK is a major vehicle manufacturer and the auto sector is a major employer. If this is to remain the case then we need to consider not only the vehicle market, but also the supply chains needed to sustain a healthy EV manufacturing base in the UK. To secure future wealth and employment in the auto sector in the UK we need an automotive industry strategy that supports the development of EV manufacture, whatever that takes.

I do think the government is aware of these challenges and that we’ll ultimately look back on the 2026 ZEV Mandate review as fine tuning on the road to transport electrification. Most significant is that the end dates for the ICE phase-out aren’t changing.

Zemo will be consulting with members and stakeholders to frame our full response to the review which closes on October 23rd.

For more information and to join the Partnership: www.zemo.org.uk