Electric van sales predicted to rise 50% in 2026

Sales of ELCVs (Electric Light Commercial Vehicles) – primarily vans – are forecasted to increase by a substantial 50% in 2026, according to DriveElectric. 

This will take registrations to around 45,000, compared to approximately 30,169 registrations in 2025 (a 9.5% market share). This dramatic increase is due to a number of factors including more vans now having a one tonne payload and a real-world range of over 200 miles, making them more viable for fleets.

DriveElectric also predicts that electric car sales in the UK will increase to 580,000 in 2026, representing 29% of a total of two million new car registrations. This falls short of the mandate target of 33%.

However flexibilities in the ZEV mandate have resulted in the target being exceeded in 2024, and this is also expected to be the case in 2025, despite EV sales not reaching the headline figure. Increased ELCV sales are due to help manufacturers achieve the overall targets in 2026, as ELCV registrations count double for the ZEV mandate.

DriveElectric uses its own model built from its intelligence of the UK market to forecast registrations of battery electric cars and vans each year, and the 2026 figures are informed by a number of factors. For example, there are now increasing numbers of smaller and more affordable electric cars available, and for motorists who aren’t able to obtain an EV through a business, the UK government’s Electric Car Grant offers car buyers a discount of £1,500 or £3,750 off the price of a new EV, based on the sustainability of the vehicle’s manufacturing. Some manufacturers are providing their own discounts if their vehicles aren’t eligible for the official government grant.

In 2026 there will continue to be more new entrants from China, as well as battery costs reducing and more EVs being offered at pricing closer to that of petrol cars. The latest EVs have longer driving ranges and faster charging, helping to break down the barrier of range anxiety which has been cited as a blocker to adoption, and amplified by misinformation.

Adam Kemp, Partnerships Director, DriveElectric, comments: “There are a range of factors which will provide the opportunity for increasing numbers of motorists to make the switch to EVs in 2026, including the Electric Car Grant, continued incentives for fleet customers, interest rates reducing, and an extremely competitive EV market space offering more affordable models with longer driving ranges.

“But it’s electric vans that promise to be the really interesting story in 2026, with our forecasts showing a 50% increase in registrations, thanks to longer driving ranges and more affordable pricing for new models, such as the Kia PV5.”