EV Energy Taskforce shows key conditions for EV transition

The EV Energy Taskforce has released a report which identifies key conditions for a successful transition to electric vehicles. 

The Taskforce’s report is published shortly after the UK Government’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy said that a minimum of 300,000 public chargepoints will need to be deployed by 2030.

In support of the Government strategy, the Taskforce has identified key conditions that will create the ‘sweet spot’ for success, driving uptake and enabling an efficient and successful transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the UK. To deliver this requires coordinated action from the energy, infrastructure and automotive sectors as well as engagement from EV users.

Using a new multi-sector model the Taskforce assessed what will be required of the UK’s public charging network to meet the needs of drivers, investors and the energy system. It shows how infrastructure can support the phase out of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles between 2030-35, and deliver on the transport ambition of Carbon Budget Six.

The Taskforce has calculated that the UK needs between 253,000 and 661,000 extra chargepoints by 2035 (with a central estimate of 490,000). There are fewer than 30,000 in place today. The model assumes that chargepoints will be built ahead of need to encourage EV uptake while, critically, also allowing operators to gain a return over the lifetime of their installations.

However, this is a complex market involving a diverse range of stakeholders and one which is not only fast growing, but very immature. Like many such markets it carries opportunity, risk and uncertainty.

In order to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget and net zero emissions targets and end the sale of ICE vehicles by 2035, 2.5 million battery electric cars will need to be available and sold per year in the UK by 2030; a rate 13 times greater than the record-breaking levels seen in 2021 and consuming as much as 7% of forecast global battery car production. By 2035 electric cars and vans are expected to account for 74% of vehicles on the road.

To provide drivers with the confidence to buy electric vehicles and the means to charge them, near home charging provision will be a critical part of the mix. As many as 50% of public chargepoints will need to provide charging for drivers in homes without dedicated parking. The Taskforce believes that local rapid-hub charging could provide a key part of this mix. Higher energy throughput gives such installations the potential to offer better economic returns than on-street charging and, importantly, be price competitive for users.

En route rapid charging is essential to support long-distance journeys. By 2035, 60,000 such chargepoints will be needed along the strategic road network, more than 10 times the number in place today.

The rapid deployment of public chargepoints at this scale implies total UK investment in public chargepoints of £7 billion by 2035, most of which the Taskforce believes can be delivered by the private sector.

By 2035, electricity demand from the transport sector is projected to rise to 55 TWh per year by 2035 making up 14% of total UK demand (equivalent to the electricity now consumed by 18 million homes).

Smart charging is an essential component of an efficient, cost effective and low embedded carbon energy system as it can reduce the requirement for network reinforcement by lowering peak demands. Domestic and slow-speed public chargepoints can also reduce charging prices by 25% or more.

Through consultation with the widest range of expert stakeholders, the Taskforce identified five key ‘enabling conditions’ to ensure the deployment of a charging infrastructure that delivers good value for EV drivers, that is attractive to investors as well as accessible and available enough to meet and build consumers’ confidence about their ability to charge when needed.

The key conditions identified are:

Public charging needs to be built ahead of need to gain consumer confidence

It’s essential that local authorities have the tools, capabilities, powers and resources to ensure integrated energy and transport planning

Public chargepoints have to be used and usable – visible, accessible, connected, secure and interoperable to gain consumer confidence

Smart charging, wherever appropriate, is essential if system cost is to be managed

Informing, educating and protecting EV users is critical to create the understanding necessary for mass market uptake